The Changing Geographic Distribution of Malaria with Global Climate Warming

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This activity engages students in the analysis of climate data to first find areas in the southern United States that are now close to having conditions in which the malaria parasite and its mosquito hosts thrive and then attempt to forecast when areas might become climatically suitable.

HS-LS2-2 Use mathematical representations to support and revise explanations based on evidence about factors affecting biodiversity and populations in ecosystems of different scales.

HS-ESS3-5 Analyze geoscience data and the results from global climate models to make an evidence-based forecast of the current rate of global or regional climate change and associated future impacts to Earth systems.

Apply concepts of statistics and probability (including determining function fits to data, slope, intercept, and correlation coefficient for linear fits) to scientific and engineering questions and problems, using digital tools when feasible.

Consider limitations of data analysis (e.g., measurement error, sample selection) when analyzing and interpreting data.

Ask questions to determine relationships, including quantitative relationships, between independent and dependent variables.

Make a quantitative and/or qualitative claim regarding the relationship between dependent and independent variables.

Apply scientific reasoning, theory, and/or models to link evidence to the claims to assess the extent to which the reasoning and data support the explanation or conclusion.

Construct, use, and/or present an oral and written argument or counter-arguments based on data and evidence.

Use mathematical, computational, and/or algorithmic representations of phenomena or design solutions to describe and/or support claims and/or explanations.

Communicate scientific and/or technical information or ideas (e.g. about phenomena and/or the process of development and the design and performance of a proposed process or system) in multiple formats (including orally, graphically, textually, and mathematically).

Make directional hypotheses that specify what happens to a dependent variable when an independent variable is manipulated.

The Changing Geographic Distribution of Malaria with Global Climate Warming

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Performance Expectations

Science and Engineering Practices